We saw some huge scores from managers last gameweek with a record number of bench boosts being played. Congratulations to those who flew up the rankings and their mini-league tables! Now it’s time to get back to reality with a standard gameweek.
Gameweek 30 has an interesting set of fixtures with few standout matches to attack. Arsenal travelling to Liverpool might funnily enough be one of the better fixtures to focus on with your lineup.
Chelsea have sacked Graham Potter while Leicester, Spurs and Crystal Palace are all getting accustomed to their new men in charge. These changes in managers can have significant effects on FPL and in turn, captaincy decisions.
Whether you’re looking for a safe pick or a high-risk/high-reward option, we’ve analysed all the fixtures to help you make the best gameweek 30 captain decision.
Here are the bookies’ predictions for gameweek 30
Top Pick
Erling Haaland, Manchester City
Erling Haaland was somewhat surprisingly out against Liverpool in gameweek 29. Managers who captained Haaland watched on in dismay as Manchester City tore Liverpool apart. Haaland easily could have returned a large point haul if he was out on the pitch.
City host Southampton this week who continue to leak goals, conceding six goals in their previous three matches. They have conceded 5.6 expected goals and 41 shots in this same period so the underlying stats show they have not been hard done by.
A big plus for Haaland and City is the resurgence of Jack Grealish’s form. Grealish operating on the left and driving with the ball is bound to deliver Haaland assists and draw defenders with his gravity.
The bookies have given Haaland the easily best odds of scoring with a 63% probability and is too good to pass up as our old reliable captain for gw 30.
Top contenders
Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa
This is the first time Ollie Watkins features in our weekly Captain Call but it is probably overdue.
He has scored or assisted in nine out of ten previous matches under new manager Unai Emery and has a prime fixture here to continue his scoring run.
Nottingham Forest are winless in their previous eight matches and have conceded 17 goals in this period. Each away game has seen them concede two or more goals and an equivalent amount of expected goals conceded.
Watkins is a safe choice and a good alternative for those without Haaland or worried about his fitness issues.
The bookies have given him a 48% chance of scoring and I believe his odds should be a bit higher than that.
Marcus Rashford, Manchester United
It has been well-documented that Rashford has been in great form since the World Cup. There is no denying that.
The concern lately has been the effect of Casemiro being suspended on the overall team performance. His control and structure in midfield have been sorely missed and have resulted in United only creating 1.6 expected goals across the previous two matches and only scoring one goal.
However, a home fixture against Everton is still a great fixture and makes Rashford a solid option.
Everton have conceded two or more goals in four of their past six fixtures and haven’t looked as defensively solid as a Sean Dyche team usually does. Doucoure is red-carded which could throw another spanner in the works for the Toffees.
Rashford has the third-best odds of scoring according to the bookies, being given a 45% probability.
Daring differential
Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus returned in style in his first start in the Premier League since a long-term knee injury.
The Arsenal Number Nine scored two goals and won the penalty for one of them. A great overall performance in only 59 minutes of playing time.
Arsenal face Liverpool who conceded four goals to Manchester City in the week and were lucky to escape the Chelsea fixture with a clean sheet after conceding 12 shots and 2.2 xG.
Liverpool return home to Anfield where they have been defensively more sound but face one of the top attacking teams in the league form-wise.
The bookies have given the Brazilian a 33% chance of scoring but he would be a great differential with very few active teams having him in their current lineups.
Nick, also known as StatsmanFPL, is a qualified data analyst with a love for FPL. He analyses the data so you don’t have to. Make sure to follow him on Twitter and Instagram.