FPL Captain Call Gameweek 34: Who’s the best pick?

Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 34 can be found here.

The mid-week fixtures saw Manchester City all but claim the 22/23 title after demolishing Arsenal 4-1 at the Etihad. Haaland rewarded believers with two assists and a goal as well as two bonus points to deliver a captaincy haul of 28 points. Not too shabby.

There are still plenty of teams fighting for positions for one reason or another. The relegation battle realistically has seven teams who are still in danger of dropping down to the Championship while the top eight teams currently are fighting for the lucrative five European spots on offer.

It will be important in the coming weeks to understand the motivation of each team and player to get the edge when it comes to transfer and FPL captaincy decisions. Some teams will be ‘on the beach’ and happy to ride out the season in the safety of mid-table. Crystal Palace, Fulham and Wolves would be the top candidates to potentially have this mindset.

We now move on to Double Gameweek 34 which sees Brighton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and West Ham play twice and some favourable fixtures are on offer. Manchester City facing Fulham and West Ham would be the pick of the bunch.

Whether you’re looking for a safe pick or a high-risk/high-reward option, we’ve analysed all the fixtures to help you make the best FPL captain gameweek 34 decision for your team.

Top Captaincy Pick GW 34

Erling Haaland, Manchester City

It doesn’t get much better than scoring a goal and dishing out two assists against your title rivals and putting your team in pole position for the league title.

Haaland had a day out against Arsenal with five shots on target and three key passes. Astounding stuff.

Facing Fulham away and West Ham at home are prime fixtures. Fulham have been struggling as they have faltered over the last month or two while West Ham have had very inconsistent form which has seen them placed only five points out of the relegation zone at the time of writing.

Fulham have not kept a clean sheet for the past eight gameweeks while West Ham have conceded two or more goals in three of their past five fixtures.

To anyone concerned about European competition and rotation, Manchester City don’t have a Champions League fixture until after Gameweek 35 so it should be full speed ahead in the league for Haaland, Pep and co.

Haaland has a staggering 88% chance of scoring over the two fixtures according to the bookies and we suggest you take those odds.

Top contenders

Mohamed Salah, Liverpool

Tottenham are in freefall. They have lost 6-1 to Newcastle in the past week and have sacked their interim manager to allow the relatively inexperienced Ryan Mason to take the helm for the remainder of the season. They look devoid of all confidence and could once again capitulate at any moment.

Liverpool have the favourable double home fixture gameweek against Tottenham and Fulham. Tottenham have conceded almost two goals per game in away fixtures and Fulham have conceded eight goals in their past four away fixtures against relatively easy competition.

On the flip side, Liverpool have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their 15 home fixtures this season, scoring 2.5 goals per game on average.

The underlying statistics and the form are pointing towards Liverpool scoring four goals at least across the two fixtures and Salah will likely play the majority of these two matches.

Salah has been given an 80% chance of scoring across the two matches.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool

Although it is uncommon to be a good decision to captain a defender, an attacking defender such as Trent with two home games in a double gameweek is definitely a valid situation.

Liverpool host Tottenham and Fulham. Fulham have slowed down since their hot start to the season, only managing to beat Everton and Leeds in their last eight fixtures while conceding in all eight of them. Tottenham will be fragile after their Newcastle demolishing and Ryan Mason does not have the experience needed to steady the team defensively as they need.

As mentioned earlier, Liverpool are 10-4-1 (W-D-L) at Home. Trent has recorded an assist in each of his last two home games since he switched to his new inverted midfield role and recorded a staggering 1.1 expected assists against Nottingham Forest.

Trent has been assigned a 19% probability to score but his assist and clean sheet points will be the money makers for him.

Daring differential

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City

De Bruyne has shaken off his mid-season lull that saw him blank for more games than not. He has returned three goals and four assists in the past four gameweeks including three returns against title hopefuls Arsenal.

As many know, De Bruyne is the ultimate competitor and I feel that now is the perfect timing to give him the nod in your team and as a captaincy option as we come to the pointy end of the season.

De Bruyne is a differential as it would make sense most of the time to go with the tried and true #9 from Manchester City Erling Haaland. However De Bruyne has four 8+ point hauls in the last five gameweeks and we could see Haaland having reduced minutes due to the congested schedule currently.

Another thing to note is De Bruyne’s historical explosivity. Last season in the closing gameweeks, De Bruyne scored four goals against Wolves to help cement Manchester City as champions.

De Bruyne has been given a 53% chance to score across the two matches but is even more likely to record an assist or multiple assists.

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Nick, also known as StatsmanFPL, is a qualified data analyst with a love for FPL. He analyses the data so you don’t have to. Make sure to follow him on Twitter and Instagram.