With the template performing strongly in the first week back, it isn’t easy to catch up. Patience is key at a time like this, as well as making the “obvious choices”.
That said, the Bookies Advantage this week offers some good differentials, as well as some template picks for you to consider.
Don’t miss our captain analysis of gameweek 18
Goalscorer odds gameweek 18
| Player | Goal probability | Odds |
| Erling Haaland | 71% | 1.41 |
| Callum Wilson | 53% | 1.87 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 53% | 1.9 |
| Mohamed Salah | 52% | 1.93 |
| Harry Kane | 51% | 1.98 |
| Darwin Nunez | 49% | 2.04 |
| Miguel Almiron | 41% | 2.45 |
| Phil Foden | 38% | 2.63 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 38% | 2.65 |
| Son Heung-Min | 37% | 2.7 |
| Riyad Mahrez | 36% | 2.75 |
| Ivan Toney | 36% | 2.8 |
| Carlos Vinicius | 36% | 2.8 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 35% | 2.85 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 34% | 2.9 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 34% | 2.95 |
| Eddie Nketiah | 33% | 3 |
| Fabio Carvalho | 33% | 3 |
| Raheem Sterling | 32% | 3.15 |
| Wilfried Zaha | 32% | 3.15 |
| Odsonne Edouard | 32% | 3.15 |
| Kai Havertz | 30% | 3.3 |
| Anthony Martial | 30% | 3.3 |
| Michail Antonio | 30% | 3.3 |
| Dominic Solanke | 29% | 3.4 |
| Jarrod Bowen | 29% | 3.4 |
| Christian Pulisic | 29% | 3.45 |
| Marcus Rashford | 29% | 3.45 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 29% | 3.5 |
| Che Adams | 29% | 3.5 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 27% | 3.65 |
| Bukayo Saka | 27% | 3.65 |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 27% | 3.65 |
| Danny Welbeck | 27% | 3.7 |
| Leandro Trossard | 27% | 3.7 |
| Kieffer Moore | 27% | 3.75 |
| Antony | 27% | 3.75 |
| Mason Mount | 26% | 3.9 |
| Bernardo Silva | 25% | 3.95 |
| Jack Grealish | 24% | 4.1 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 24% | 4.1 |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 24% | 4.1 |
| Danny Ings | 24% | 4.2 |
| Diego Costa | 24% | 4.2 |
| Rodrigo | 24% | 4.25 |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 24% | 4.25 |
| Ollie Watkins | 23% | 4.35 |
| Harry Wilson | 23% | 4.35 |
| Raul Jimenez | 23% | 4.35 |
| Martin Odegaard | 23% | 4.4 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 23% | 4.4 |
| Patrick Bamford | 22% | 4.5 |
| Jamie Vardy | 22% | 4.5 |
| Adam Armstrong | 22% | 4.5 |
| Patson Daka | 21% | 4.7 |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 21% | 4.8 |
| Yoane Wissa | 20% | 4.9 |
| Jadon Sancho | 20% | 4.9 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 20% | 5 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 20% | 5.1 |
| Goncalo Guedes | 20% | 5.1 |
| Joe Willock | 19% | 5.2 |
| Andreas Pereira | 19% | 5.3 |
| Ivan Perisic | 17% | 5.75 |
| Leon Bailey | 17% | 5.8 |
| Philippe Coutinho | 17% | 5.8 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 17% | 5.8 |
| Harvey Barnes | 17% | 5.8 |
| Pascal Gross | 16% | 6.25 |
| Neal Maupay | 16% | 6.25 |
| Emiliano Buendia | 15% | 6.5 |
| Anthony Gordon | 14% | 7 |
| Virgil van Dijk | 13% | 7.5 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 13% | 7.5 |
| Joao Cancelo | 13% | 7.5 |
| Christian Eriksen | 13% | 7.5 |
| Granit Xhaka | 13% | 8 |
| Brenden Aaronson | 12% | 8.5 |
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The Leviathan from Leeds, the Bryne Beast, or the Manchester Mammoth.
Call him what you want, but what he means is your perma-captain for the rest of the season unless he is slain by some mythical hero.
He plays Everton at home this week, who conceded two goals to the worst attacking team in the league in Gameweek 17.
Football can sometimes surprise us, but anything other than an Erling Haaland (71%) captaincy this week is overthinking things.
Last week, Aleksandr Mitrovic (53%) punished those who do silly things like ‘listen to press conference news’ and ‘pay attention to yellow flags’ as he ran out top scorer of the gameweek with 15 points.
This week he plays Southampton at home, who were roundly beaten by Brighton on Boxing day. The Saints’ hopes of a new-manager-bounce look faint as their poor defensive form continues, now conceding ten goals in their last three games.
Mo Salah (52%) showed signs of revival in Gameweek 17, a goal and an assist giving him a double-digit return of 12.
This weekend, he takes on a Leicester side who were swatted away like flies by Newcastle last time out and with Liverpool’s sharp attacking play and renewed energy, we can expect more of the same in Gameweek 18.
Leicester 18th for goals conceded away in the league (19), while Liverpool are third for goals scored at home (21).
So confident are we in Liverpool’s attack this gameweek, we have a double-up with Darwin Nunez (49%). The Uruguayan’s performance against Aston Villa has divided opinion as to whether he is a rough diamond or an £85 million lump of coal.
Nunez had four shots on target, missed four big chances and accumulated an expected goal tally of 1.16.
The Liverpool man has shown in the past he’s capable of multiple returns, and with Leicester’s defensive woes, he merits a place in our starting XI this week.
Miguel Almiron (41%) continues to defy belief and ignite excitement. He scored the pick of the goals in a 3-0 demolition of Leicester.
This week he takes on a Leeds United team at home that have conceded three or more goals in four of their last five games and at £5.9, continues to offer excellent value.
Wilfried Zaha (32%) played as the main striker as he saw his Crystal Palace team reduced to ten men in the first half, before going down to nine early in the second.
This weekend he’ll be hoping for better fortune as they travel to Bournemouth who looked poor against Chelsea on Tuesday night. He takes our last midfield spot.
On the bench this week is Andreas Pereira (19%) who looked good again this gameweek, as well as Josh Dasilva (£4.2m) as his low price allows us to squeeze all we can from the starting XI.
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Clean sheet odds gameweek 18
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Man City | 60% | 1.68 |
| Chelsea | 45% | 2.2 |
| Liverpool | 44% | 2.25 |
| Newcastle | 43% | 2.3 |
| Man Utd | 39% | 2.55 |
| Tottenham | 38% | 2.6 |
| West Ham | 36% | 2.8 |
| Crystal Palace | 32% | 3.1 |
| Arsenal | 30% | 3.3 |
| Fulham | 30% | 3.3 |
| Bournemouth | 28% | 3.6 |
| Wolves | 22% | 4.5 |
| Brentford | 22% | 4.6 |
| Brighton | 21% | 4.8 |
| Southampton | 19% | 5.2 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19% | 5.25 |
| Aston Villa | 17% | 5.8 |
| Leeds | 13% | 7.5 |
| Leicester | 10% | 10.5 |
| Everton | 7% | 15 |
Manchester City (60%) top the charts for clean sheet odds this week after Guardiola put on a masterclass of roulette wheel spinning on Wednesday night to leave owners scratching their heads as to why they continue to fall for the same old tricks.
Well, we’re ready to get hurt again with a Man City defensive double-up as they take on a floundering Everton, who have scored just one goal in five games against the top seven so far this season.
Manuel Akanji seems to have nailed down his spot, starting all of the last nine games in the league. He looks a safe choice. He is joined by Joao Cancelo, who Pep wouldn’t dream of benching twice in a row. Right? RIGHT?!?
Chelsea (45%) gave a calm and confident display at home to Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Potter’s men pressed well from the front and when they lost the ball, they were quick to win it back. All in all, Chelsea restricted the Cherries to just 0.54 expected goals, with many of their efforts coming from outside the box.
This week they play Nottingham Forest who have scored five open play goals in eight games at home this year, with one goal in all games against top seven opposition.
With Reece James out, Marc Cucurella is the most likely replacement. The left back played well against Bournemouth, creating one big chance and making nine passes into the final third. At just £5.1m, he makes our team this week.
Liverpool (44%) also looked a bit better defensively the other night, though failed to come away from Villa Park with the clean sheet, the return of key men in defence and midfield made them more solid.
This week they play host to Leicester who looked awful as they were outfoxed by Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. The absence of James Maddison played a big role in their weak attack as they managed just two shots on target for a xG of 0.52.
Joel Matip represents something of a differential at just 0.8%. His season has been hampered by injury but he seems to be fit now and showed toward the end of last season that when given a chance he can score goals.
Speaking of Newcastle United (43%), they are our fourth entry on the clean sheet odds list after their dominant display against Brendan Rodgers’ men on Boxing Day.
They take on a Leeds United team who look short on confidence as they are missing key men in crucial positions.
No team has more clean sheets at home in the league this season than Eddie Howe’s Newcastle and with Kieran Trippier tied with Andy Robertson for top assists amongst all defenders, he makes a very obvious choice.
On the bench for us this week is Danny Ward (£4.1m) & Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) with their prices being the only attractive thing about them.
Team of the week Gameweek 18
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here