Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 28

If you listen closely you can hear the sound of millions of free hit chips being played, and with a full XI to choose from, the Bookies Advantage team of the week is the perfect place to look.
This week it features some forgotten FPL gems, as well as tried and tested assets.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 28? Find out in our roundup here

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Harry Kane	46%	2.18	TOT	FWD
Ivan Toney	43%	2.32	BRE	FWD
Ollie Watkins	43%	2.33	AVL	FWD
Callum Wilson	43%	2.35	NEW	FWD
Alexander Isak	41%	2.45	NEW	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	40%	2.5	ARS	FWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	39%	2.55	CHE	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	38%	2.65	ARS	MID
Joao Felix	38%	2.65	CHE	FWD
Bukayo Saka	37%	2.7	ARS	MID
Kai Havertz	35%	2.85	CHE	FWD
Raheem Sterling	35%	2.88	CHE	MID
Leandro Trossard	34%	2.9	ARS	MID
Son Heung-Min	32%	3.1	TOT	MID
Raul Jimenez	29%	3.45	WOL	FWD
Leon Bailey	29%	3.5	AVL	MID
Emiliano Buendia	27%	3.65	AVL	MID
Patrick Bamford	27%	3.65	LEE	FWD
Martin Odegaard	27%	3.75	ARS	MID
Rodrigo	27%	3.75	LEE	MID
Christian Pulisic	26%	3.8	CHE	MID
Yoane Wissa	26%	3.85	BRE	MID
Richarlison	25%	3.95	TOT	FWD
Jamie Vardy	25%	4	LEI	FWD
Dominic Solanke	24%	4.1	BOU	FWD
James Maddison	24%	4.1	LEI	MID
Miguel Almiron	24%	4.1	NEW	MID
Kelechi Iheanacho	24%	4.2	LEI	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	24%	4.25	CHE	MID
Mason Mount	24%	4.25	CHE	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	22%	4.6	WOL	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	21%	4.7	BRE	FWD
Daniel Podence	21%	4.7	WOL	MID
Harvey Barnes	21%	4.8	LEI	MID
Patson Daka	21%	4.8	LEI	FWD
Wilfried Zaha	20%	5	CRY	MID
Che Adams	20%	5	SOU	FWD
Brennan Johnson	20%	5.1	NFO	FWD
Allan Saint-Maximin	19%	5.3	NEW	MID
Wilfred Gnonto	18%	5.5	LEE	MID
Joe Willock	17%	5.75	NEW	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	17%	5.75	NEW	MID
Crysencio Summerville	17%	5.8	LEE	MID
Adam Armstrong	17%	5.8	SOU	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	17%	6	CRY	FWD
Neal Maupay	16%	6.1	EVE	FWD
Odsonne Edouard	15%	6.5	CRY	FWD
Demarai Gray	15%	6.5	EVE	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	15%	6.75	TOT	MID
Ivan Perisic	15%	6.75	TOT	DEF
Philip Billing	14%	7	BOU	MID
Reece James	14%	7	CHE	DEF
Granit Xhaka	11%	9.5	ARS	MID

Harry Kane (46%) comes out on top of the goal scorers market heading into Blank Gameweek 28. Spurs’ star striker bagged a brace at home to Nottingham Forest last weekend to take his tally to 26 returns in 27 games.
This weekend he travels to Southampton who have been more solid defensively since Ruben Selles took the reins, keeping three clean sheets in five games.
However, the disparity between goals conceded (3) and expected goals conceded (7.20) suggests they have been lucky not to concede more.
Betting on an in-form Harry Kane seems like a smart play, and that’s backed up by the odds. He takes our captain’s armband this week.

He is joined by a teammate, Heung-min Son (32%) who has fond memories of St. Mary’s where he once scored four goals in a 5-2 demolition of the Saints. Though having somewhat of an off-season he’ll be hoping he can add to the two goals in his last four games this weekend.

Ivan Toney (43%) made owners (and captainers) wait for his double-digit haul with a late assist to nab all three bonus points away at Southampton in Gameweek 26. The Brentford striker now has 20 returns in 24 starts this season.
This week he and Brentford host a Leicester side who have been in dire form since the World Cup, conceding the joint most goals (21) and the highest expected goals too (21.48).
Meanwhile, Toney over the same period has a higher expected goal involvement per 90 than Erling Haaland (0.82 vs 0.80).
The Bee’s striker seems like a safe bet this weekend.

Ollie Watkins (43%) takes the third striker’s spot. The Villa forward has been in amazing form these last few weeks scoring six goals in his last seven starts.
So often a frustrating figure in the past, he seems to have become more clinical since Unai Emery’s appointment. His shot conversion rate from Gameweeks 1-16 was just 10%, now jumped up to 26% from Gameweek 17 -27.
This week he takes on Bournemouth who are 18th for expected goals conceded in the last 10 gameweeks which should provide plenty of opportunities to add to his tally.

Leon Bailey (29%) joins his Villa teammate this week, the cheap midfielder looks lively every time he plays and is in the top ten amongst midfielders when it comes to shots and shots in the box. He could make an interesting differential this week.

Gabriel Martinelli’s (38%) form seems to have caught fire again. Four goals in his last four starts has him looking back to his best and feeling confident heading into a home game against a woefully out of form Crystal Palace. The Eagles have conceded 18 goals in nine games against “Big Six” sides so far this season.

Yoanne Wissa (26%) & Miguel Almiron (24%) take their spot on the bench for us. Both midfielders scored off the bench in Gameweek 27.

Team	Clean sheet probability	Odds
Arsenal	61%	1.64
Chelsea	56%	1.77
Newcastle	48%	2.1
Aston Villa	44%	2.28
Tottenham	43%	2.35
Wolves	40%	2.48
Brentford	36%	2.75
Leeds	31%	3.25
Leicester	22%	4.5
Southampton	22%	4.5
Nottingham Forest	21%	4.7
Bournemouth	20%	5.1
Everton	18%	5.6
Crystal Palace	11%	9

Arsenal (61%) come out top for clean sheet odds heading into the weekend after looking imperious in defence in a dominant display at Craven Cottage last weekend.
They welcome Crystal Palace to the Emirates in Gameweek 28, who after three games without a shot on target, finally managed three against Brighton though none ever looked like going in.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have now moved to 12 clean sheets this season, joint top with Newcastle and look likely to add to that this weekend.
Gabriel Magalhaes and Oleksandr Zinchenko boast the highest xG and xA respectively in the Arsenal backline and seem like obvious choices for us this weekend.

Chelsea (56%) seem to have found their groove under Graham Potter making it two wins in a row for the first time since October, as they ran out 3-1 winners away to Leicester in Gameweek 26.
Their underlying defensive data since the World Cup looks good too, they sit 3rd for goals conceded (9) and joint first for big chances conceded (12).
Their opponents this week, Everton, have scored just one goal in four away matches against “Big Six” teams this season.
Kepa Arrizabalaga is a good choice in goal as Chelsea have the good habit of conceding lots of lower xG shots from outside the box, allowing Kepa to rack up the save points.

Newcastle United (48%) are without a clean sheet in five games, their worst run this season, as they travel to Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 28. However, the Bookies are counselling patience with Newcastle’s defensive assets.
Their record on the road has been good so far, keeping five clean sheets in 12 games (2nd), as well as only conceding 19 big chances (1st).
Forest meanwhile, have been decent at home in an attacking sense, scoring 17 goals in 13 games (13th) with an xG of 16.32 (14th).
Kieran Trippier seems like a no-brainer most weeks and with Newcastle desperate to get back into those top 4 places, we’re backing Newcastle to get the job done and to keep that all-important clean sheet.

Aston Villa (44%) look defensively solid of late, keeping two clean sheets in their last three games as they look comfortable when playing bottom-half teams at home.
That’s exactly what they get this weekend when they host a Bournemouth side, who will be buoyed by their big win over Liverpool in Gameweek 26.
Goals on the road have been hard to come by of late for the Cherries, as they’ve failed to score in four of their last six away matches.
Tyrone Mings is a nailed-on starter in the Villa team and is usually good for bonus points when the Villians do manage a clean sheet,

Fraser Forster (43%) continues on our bench after saving a penalty last week, he is joined by Max Kilman (40%) who has a decent chance of a clean sheet at home to Leeds this gameweek.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here