Not a great gameweek for the bookie’s team last week in terms of overall points, however, we did manage four returns out of our five defensive players as well as five attacking returns out of our six attacking players, including our Liverpool attacking triple-up.
This week sees the first double gameweek of the season with both Burnley and Luton Town playing twice. The forward positions are again mostly dominated by top six sides while in defence, budget options enable the big hitters up front.
Don’t miss our gameweek 6 captaincy candidate roundup here
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 7
| Player | Team | Probability | Probability match 2 | Combined probability |
| Erling Haaland | MCI | 68% | 68% | |
| Callum Wilson | NEW | 58% | 58% | |
| Carlton Morris | LUT | 26% | 34% | 51% |
| Alexander Isak | NEW | 49% | 49% | |
| Mohamed Salah | LIV | 48% | 48% | |
| Marcus Rashford | MUN | 45% | 45% | |
| Darwin Nunez | LIV | 43% | 43% | |
| Eddie Nketiah | ARS | 42% | 42% | |
| Bukayo Saka | ARS | 42% | 42% | |
| Gabriel Jesus | ARS | 42% | 42% | |
| Evan Ferguson | BHA | 42% | 42% | |
| Son Heung-Min | TOT | 41% | 41% | |
| Ollie Watkins | AVL | 40% | 40% | |
| Rasmus Højlund | MUN | 39% | 39% | |
| Jay Rodriguez | BUR | 17% | 25% | 38% |
| Arnaout Danjuma | EVE | 38% | 38% | |
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | 38% | 38% | |
| Jarrod Bowen | WHU | 38% | 38% | |
| Bryan Mbeumo | BRE | 37% | 37% | |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | 37% | 37% | |
| Diego Jota | LIV | 37% | 37% | |
| Danny Ings | WHU | 37% | 37% | |
| Elijah Adebayo | LUT | 17% | 24% | 37% |
| Zeki Amdouni | BUR | 17% | 23% | 36% |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | NFO | 36% | 36% | |
| Moussa Diaby | AVL | 35% | 35% | |
| Phil Foden | MCI | 35% | 35% | |
| Richarlison | TOT | 35% | 35% | |
| Kaoru Mitoma | BHA | 35% | 35% | |
| Michail Antonio | WHU | 34% | 34% | |
| Raheem Sterling | CHE | 34% | 34% | |
| Luis Díaz | LIV | 33% | 33% | |
| Gabriel Martinelli | ARS | 32% | 32% | |
| Kai Havertz | ARS | 32% | 32% | |
| João Pedro | BHA | 32% | 32% | |
| Carlos Vinicius | FUL | 32% | 32% | |
| Miguel Almiron | NEW | 31% | 31% | |
| Ansu Fati | BHA | 30% | 30% | |
| Yoane Wissa | BRE | 30% | 30% | |
| Martin Odegaard | ARS | 30% | 30% | |
| James Maddison | TOT | 30% | 30% | |
| Anthony Martial | MUN | 29% | 29% | |
| Said Benrahma | WHU | 29% | 29% | |
| Dominic Solanke | BOU | 28% | 28% | |
| Raúl Jiménez | FUL | 28% | 28% | |
| Jeremy Doku | MCI | 28% | 28% | |
| Eberechi Eze | CRY | 27% | 27% | |
| Odsonne Edouard | CRY | 27% | 27% | |
| Cameron Archer | SHU | 27% | 27% | |
| Leandro Trossard | ARS | 26% | 26% | |
| Cody Gakpo | LIV | 26% | 26% | |
| Anthony Gordon | NEW | 26% | 26% | |
| Nathan Redmond | BUR | 11% | 15% | 24% |
| Chris Wood | NFO | 24% | 24% | |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | CRY | 24% | 24% | |
| Bernardo Silva | MCI | 24% | 24% | |
| Jack Grealish | MCI | 24% | 24% | |
| Mason Mount | MUN | 24% | 24% | |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | WOL | 23% | 23% | |
| Leon Bailey | AVL | 23% | 23% | |
| Kieffer Moore | BOU | 23% | 23% | |
| Elliot Anderson | NEW | 22% | 22% | |
| Bruno Guimaraes | NEW | 21% | 21% | |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | NFO | 20% | 20% | |
| Solly March | BHA | 19% | 19% | |
| Neal Maupay | BRE | 19% | 19% | |
| William Osula | SHU | 19% | 19% | |
| Sander Berge | BUR | 8% | 11% | 19% |
| Justin Kluivert | BOU | 19% | 19% | |
| Bobby Reid | FUL | 19% | 19% | |
| Christian Eriksen | MUN | 19% | 19% | |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | BRE | 18% | 18% | |
| Harry Wilson | FUL | 17% | 17% | |
| Conor Gallagher | CHE | 16% | 16% | |
| Philip Billing | BOU | 15% | 15% | |
| Enzo | CHE | 15% | 15% | |
| Andreas Pereira | FUL | 15% | 15% | |
| Dejan Kulusevski | TOT | 15% | 15% | |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | WOL | 14% | 14% | |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | CHE | 13% | 13% | |
| Sandro Tonali | NEW | 13% | 13% | |
| Alex Mac Allister | LIV | 11% | 11% | |
| Jordan Ayew | CRY | 11% | 11% | |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | LIV | 8% | 8% | |
| Virgil van Dijk | LIV | 8% | 8% |
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Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland (68%) is the bookies’ choice for captaincy, making it six out of the first seven gameweeks.
This week he travels to Wolves having scored eight goals in this opening six gameweeks. Wolves on the other hand have not looked excellent defensively, conceding 12 goals (18th), 36 shots on target (17th) and 21 big chances (18th) so far this season.
With many considering alternative captains this gameweek, the bookies are very clear in their favouritism for Haaland. You bet against him at your peril.
Callum Wilson (58%) takes the vice captaincy for us this gameweek, despite his yellow flag. The Englishman was likely rested during the week and Eddie Howe has been known to lie about injuries on occasion.
After just the one goal in an 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United, Wilson and Newcastle welcome Burnley to St. James Park having conceded 13 goals in their first five games (Only Sheffield United having conceded more).
Wilson meanwhile is averaging 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes so far this season which is off the charts. He looks a great short term option, with Isak limping off injured during midweek.
Carlton Morris (48%) benefits from a double gameweek in Gameweek 7 which is the likely reason he rates so highly in the goal scoring odds.
First up he takes on Everton away who, despite their lack of clean sheets, have decent underlying defensive data and will no doubt be buoyed by two wins in a row against good opposition.
Second will be Burnley, who do have a zonal weakness through the middle and have been conceding a lot of goals to central strikers.
At just £5.5m and with a double gameweek, he’s worth a punt if shopping in the bargain bucket this gameweek.
Mohammed Salah (48%) returned double digits last week and this week takes on a Spurs side who, while looking good in attack, look somewhat open defensively. Saka had a lot of joy down Spurs left last week and the bookies are clearly expecting Salah to do something similar.
Marcus Rashford (45%) has had a lacklustre start to the season, with just one goal scored so far, however, the bookies are counselling patience when it comes to the Man United winger, when he takes on Crystal Palace at home in Gameweek 7.
Having beat Palace 3-0 during the week Ten Hags men will be confident of getting a win here and Rashford still looks like United’s surest way to goal.
With Bukayo Saka (42%) a doubt for the weekend, Son Heung-min (41%) makes up the last space in our attack. Looking a completely different player to last year, the South Korean has already racked up five goals in his last three games and looks sharp as ever. Spurs vs Liverpool always produces goals and were backing Son to cash in on the weekend.
On the bench for us this week is Marvelous Nakamba (4.4m) who has a double gameweek and Hannibal Mejbri (£4.4m) who started and played 90 mins last week and even scored the week before.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 7
| Team | CS probability | CS probability game 2 | Combined probability |
| Man City | 49% | 49% | |
| Newcastle | 49% | 49% | |
| Everton | 48% | 48% | |
| West Ham | 45% | 45% | |
| Luton | 19% | 30% | 43% |
| Man Utd | 43% | 43% | |
| Arsenal | 40% | 40% | |
| Burnley | 11% | 33% | 40% |
| Chelsea | 38% | 38% | |
| Brentford | 33% | 33% | |
| Nottingham Forest | 32% | 32% | |
| Fulham | 23% | 23% | |
| Liverpool | 23% | 23% | |
| Brighton | 21% | 21% | |
| Aston Villa | 21% | 21% | |
| Crystal Palace | 16% | 16% | |
| Tottenham | 16% | 16% | |
| Sheffield Utd | 14% | 14% | |
| Bournemouth | 13% | 13% | |
| Wolves | 11% | 11% |
Newcastle United (49%) put in a dominant display last weekend as they beat Sheffield United 8-0, recording their third clean sheet in a row, the Magpies seem to have found some defensive form.
This week they welcome Burnley to St. James Park who are rock bottom for expected goals so far this season. Conversely Newcastle sit fourth for expected goals conceded despite tough opening fixtures against the likes of Brighton, Man City and Liverpool.
Kieran Trippier (£6.6m) and Sven Botman (£4.7m) returned 30 points between them last weekend and seem like great assets in both the short and long term.
Man City (49%) kept their third clean sheet of the season last weekend at home to Nottingham Forest, though they did have to hold on for the second half as they went down to ten men.
This week they travel to Wolves, who despite creating a reasonable amount of chances, lack the quality in the final third to finish those chances.
Kyle Walker (£5.2m) seems to be nailed in the side at the minute, grabbing a nice assist last weekend. He looks like a safe option in our defence this week.
Everton (48%) surprisingly sit third on the list this week, despite failing to keep any clean sheets so far this season. It’s worth noting however, that they conceded just one goal in four out of those six games so might consider themselves somewhat unlucky.
This week they host Luton Town, who are yet to score a goal from open play on the road, their only one so far coming from a penalty against Brighton in Gameweek 1.
Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.0m) looks a great enabler for us this weekend as he seems to have nailed down a starting place in this Everton defence.
West Ham (45%) are another highly rated defence this week despite having no clean sheets recorded thus far. However the Hammers, like Everton, can consider themselves somewhat unlucky as they have conceded just one goal on four occasions in their opening six games.
This week they welcome Sheffield United, who look by far and away the worst attacking team in the league as they sit bottom among all teams who have played six games for goals, shots, big chances and expected goals.
The temptation to pick a West Ham centre back was strong given Sheffield United’s poor set piece defence last weekend, however, Alphonse Areola, at just £4.2m is just too tempting an enabler to pass up.
On the bench for us this week in defence are Matt Turner (£4.0m) as well as Issa Kabore (£4.0m) who has a double gameweek this week and a 43% chance of a clean sheet in at least one game.
Team of the week gameweek 7
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here